Southern Polar Bears Show Decline

polar bears in Churchill

Polar bear mother and cub taking a breather lying on the Precambrian shield in Churchill Katie de Meulles photo.

All signs point to a decline in polar bear numbers in the southeastern region of the Hudson Bay, namely Churchill. Without even looking at the most recent statistics, there have been telltale changes in bear behavior that signal a potential shift in the polar bear population in the region.

A recent in-depth survey of polar bears in the world’s most southerly range indicates numbers have dropped and climate change is possibly rearing its head on the most accessible region to see these majestic creatures, Churchill!

Lead researcher and primary author of scientific paper Martyn Obbard focused on the polar bears residing on the shores of the James Bay and Hudson Bay known as the southern Hudson Bay population. Obbard collaborated with scientists from governments of Nunavut, Quebec and Ontario as well as the United States.

“If this trend is real and if it continues, I think we happened to have caught it just as it started to go over a cliff,” said Martyn Obbard, lead author of the paper that appeared this week in the journal Arctic Science.

A 17per cent decrease in five years, from 943 to 780 in that region has the scientific community on high alert. However, the more alarming number is a decrease from 12 percent to 5 percent of yearlings from 2011 to 2018.

“Many adult females may still be producing litters, but they may be less successful in raising cubs,” says the paper.

Studies over the last few years have reported what we have been seeing on average. Polar bears are getting skinnier and smaller from an annual reduction in the number of days of accessible sea ice

Between 1980 and 2012, research shows the number of days spent on land rather than on sea ice increased by 30 days. This time period severely reduces the amount of seal fat intake and leads to lower survival rates particularly for yearlings and less experienced hunters.

While the last survey of Hudson Bay polar bears conducted in 2011 showed population numbers fairly stable and in line with the previous 25 years of observations, Obbard wanted to quell the debate on both sides regarding the population. The latest ariel survey was conducted with rigor and quite comparable to the 2011 survey.

Obbard, recently retired from the Ontario government, cautions that having only two data points is not a conclusive study, the drop off observed is troubling at least.

“We’ve tried to be not alarmist. But we’ve tried to point out there are serious concerns,” stated Obbard.

While the years have produced images of polar bears seemingly adapting better to more ice-free days through finding alternative food sources or hunting seals on land or in the coastal shallows, Obbard’s most recent study validates impending warnings from researchers who have maintained that polar bear numbers would shrink like the ice when seal hunting days were reduced.

polar bear and seal kill churchill, MB

Polar bears have seemed to adapt in recent years to less “ice time” by hunting closer to shore. Alex De Vries – Magnifico photo.

“If we have a decline in body condition, what comes next? Declines in survival then decline in reproductive success,” he said. “And what are the consequences of those? The individual-level effects become population-level effects — declines in survival rates and now declines in abundance.”

Past warnings have been similar to what Obbard sees now. Everything points to climate change as the main end cause of polar bear body deterioration. The pure fact that sea ice has been reduced year over year cannot be ignored.

“It is disheartening,” Obbard states.

Another intensive survey should be scheduled for 2021 to further find an accurate baseline for the western and southern Hudson Bay populations according to Obbard.

Churchill Weekly Polar Bear Stats

The Hudson Bay is not cooperating for the hungry polar bears in the Churchill region. As you can see in the notes by Conservation officers, Churchill is not so safe these days. Hopes are high that the ice will return and remain  the rest of the winter once we are through this period. Anxious polar bears on the land and in the Polar Bear Holding Facility will eagerly migrate their once formed! This extended ice – free period will affect the southern Hudson Bay polar bear population in some way. It will be quite interesting to see what transpires in years to come.

polar bear in Churchill

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Polar bear mother and cub resting on the Precambrian shield in Churchill. Katie de Meulles photo.

Hudson Bay ice map

Ice map of the Hudson Bay region showing very little ice in the bay. Environment Canada image.

Beluga Whales Galore in Churchill

This aeriel video footage by Brian Fergusson gives us an idea of the incredible numbers of beluga whales in the waters surrounding the town of Churchill. The Hudson Bay and the Churchill River are filled with belugas and their young calves. The whales migrate from the north and spend the summer months in these estuaries all along the southern Hudson Bay coastline. Churchill has become the prime destination for travelers to view the pods of whales from zodiacs, kayaks and even snorkel with the mammals in the cool water. There’s no other accessible point to view thousands of belugas in such a condensed area and Churchill provides the infrastructure to comfortably partake in whale viewing excursions.

No skinny bears in sight

I read an article on the internet about a polar bear that had died in Svalbard and the propaganda being put forth about global warming was nauseating. Not that I don’t believe global warming is in fact truly occurring …but one dead polar bear can ,in no way, verify that truth. Nor can one colder than normal winter substantiate the claim that global warming is a hoax.The bear carcass, pictured, was found on an Arctic cruise by Polar Bear scientist, Dr Ian Stirling.

The photo and story of the “bear rug” as it was described accurately, was supposed to accentuate the pro-warming angle being plead by many. One starved polar bear “bearing” the torch for the global warming crusade. Somewhat slanted journalism in my opinion.

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I am an proponent of the global warming theory and I respect the many scientific -based organizations that put forth the growing evidence of sea – ice loss and warming trends in our planets climate. I feel ,however, that at times we try to hard to persuade the nay-sayers with unfounded propaganda that turns people away from the cause of protecting our planet.

For the time being let’s just enjoy the fact that many bears arriving on -land in the southern Hudson Bay are healthy polar bears ready to wait out the freeze -up a little more comfortably this fall. Apparently the sky is not falling..just yet. Check out these rather plump bear photo’s taken just a couple of days ago by Churchillian Jody Grosbrink.

 

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